'Alkaline electrolysers will dominate green hydrogen production for another decade': report
But manufacturing capacity will be double that of demand by 2030, says research house
Alkaline electrolysers will continue to dominate the green hydrogen industry for another decade due to the maturity of the technology and the potential to make efficiency gains, according to a US- and China-based hydrogen and renewables research house.
Stay ahead on hydrogen with our free newsletter
However, overall electrolyser manufacturing capacity will be up to double that of demand by 2030, the report from Clean Energy Associates (CEA) warned.
This is because the technology will be in most demand from producers, due to its relative maturity and low capital costs compared to other electrolyser technologies, namely proton exchange membrane (PEM) and anion exchange membrane (AEM) machines, and solid-oxide electrolysers (SOE).
“Alkaline electrolysers will remain the most-produced technology in the next ten years due to their cost advantage and potential efficiency improvement,” said the report.
By contrast, PEM electrolysers, while mature, will be hobbled by the need to use rare metals in PEM electrodes, which CEA warned would sustain high prices for the machines.
Meanwhile, the need to operate at high temperatures for optimal operation and short stack lifetime will hinder the development of SOE technology, it said.
CEA added that AEM technology is yet to mature, with an unstable supply chain bottleneck and a short lifetime for the anion exchange membrane, leading to a high levelised cost of hydrogen.
Most of this alkaline electrolyser supply will be concentrated in Europe and China, CEA noted, with PEM factories more evenly distributed across the globe.
However, demand for electrolysers could be half the nameplate capacity of the world’s factories by the end of the decade, CEA warned, on the back of massive manufacturing capacity expansion that does not match up with the corresponding investment in green hydrogen projects.
However, market conditions will be liable to change, CEA said.
“The forecasted electrolyser demand is highly uncertain, as it can be affected by policy implementation, downstream industry developments, low-cost-renewable energy availability and operation of existing projects,” the report explained.