China’s green hydrogen boom | 'Domestic electrolyser demand will grow from more than 2GW this year to 40GW in 2028'
Chinese manufacturers can also expect to sell their low-cost machines in Europe and the US in the near future, says investment bank CICC
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And with foreign electrolysers costing about three to four times more than their Chinese counterparts, there is also plenty of export potential, the financial institution adds.
“We expect the domestic demand for electrolysers to be 2GW+ in 2023, with a market space of 3.8 billion yuan [$553m]. In 2028, the domestic demand for electrolysers will exceed 40GW, and the new market space is expected to exceed 50 billion yuan,” it says, adding that it expects four million tonnes of green hydrogen to be produced in China during 2028.
CICC also expects overseas demand for electrolysers to exceed 110GW in 2028.
“In the production of alkaline electrolysers, there is little technical difference between home [ie, made in China] and abroad. In terms of cost, the average price of alkaline electrolysers in China in 2022 will have been about US$343/kW, while the price of alkaline electrolysers in Western countries will have been as high as US$1,200/kW.
“We believe that with the further improvement of the technology of Chinese electrolytic cells, Chinese enterprises can expect to enter the European and American markets through joint ventures and other means, and broaden the long-term market space.”
“We believe that the large-scale production of electrolysis hydrogen production equipment, the advancement of electrolysis technology, and the reduction of new energy electricity prices will... reduce the cost of hydrogen production.
The note then explains that with the expected cost improvements in electrolysers, power prices of 0.25 yuan/kWh and 0.1 yuan/kWh would enable green hydrogen to reach cost parity with grey hydrogen made from fossil gas and coal, respectively.