More expensive than green | '$100bn of blue and grey hydrogen assets could be stranded before 2030': study
Carbon Tracker warns that high natural-gas prices, a supply squeeze and green H2 cost reductions could put fossil-based production at risk 'almost immediately'
Hydrogen: hype, hope and the hard truths around its role in the energy transition
The long-run marginal costs (the cost of adding one more unit of production to an existing plant) of producing both grey and blue hydrogen from methane (with the latter using carbon capture and storage), shot up by 70% after Russia invaded Ukraine, to about $12/kg in August .
This has put a premium of at least 50% (or around $7.60/kg) on the marginal cost of grey and blue hydrogen in Europe, compared to green hydrogen production in the Iberian peninsula, Carbon Tracker claims.
“The ability of investors to guarantee favourable returns over a fossil-hydrogen asset’s operational tenure is therefore questioned,” the report said. “The unpredictable rise in gas prices, along with gas supply disruptions, especially at current levels could automatically change a profit-making blue/grey hydrogen asset to a loss-making one.”
Pointing out that the development of new blue and grey hydrogen assets is not aligned with gas supply growth in net-zero pathways outlined by either the International Energy Agency or the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the report warned that operators might also have trouble sourcing long-term fossil-gas supply.
“Fossil-hydrogen asset owners with long-term gas supply contracts beyond 2020 are at risk of stranding, as none of the presented net zero scenarios supports for more gas expansion or supply,” Carbon Tracker said.
This, of course, assumes that those pathways are followed, and that oil & gas companies adjust their investment strategies accordingly — which at present seems unlikely.
But US operators will be shielded to a certain extent from the supply and pricing pressures affecting Asia and Europe, due to overall lower gas prices in the US market, the study said.
“This should, however, not be misconstrued by US investors to make new investments in fossil hydrogen,” the report warned, noting that declining gas supply could affect the US market by the early 2040s.
As such, Mbuk called for policymakers to consider introducing a contract for difference programme for hydrogen, which the UK has already sanctioned, as well as tax credit schemes like those in the US.