In a world that reaches net zero by 2050, where energy security is a “dominant concern” in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, clean hydrogen would become the preferred solution for road freight, but every car in the world would be battery electric, according to a new scenario from Shell.

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The oil giant often publishes scenarios of how the energy industry might evolve, depending on certain parameters — although it is careful to point out that these are neither predictions nor expectations of what might happen — and has today published two new Energy Security scenarios to explore how the world could evolve following the Russian invasion.

One scenario, called Archipelagos, involves nations seeing renewables as a way to improve energy security, but the world does not reach net-zero emissions until after the year 2100.

The second, called Sky 2050, sees the planet reaching net-zero by 2050, as global climate security “becomes the primary concern”.

In the Sky 2050 scenario “the future of road passenger vehicles shifts rapidly to a single solution: battery electric power”, Shell states in a 124-page report.

“No space emerges for any other solution as manufacturers abandon the development, then production, of vehicles with an internal combustion engine. Business models throughout the passenger transport sector rapidly move towards electric vehicles.”

By contrast, hydrogen will have a major role as a fuel for long-distance trucking, the report adds.

“The high-energy density of molecular fuels remains critical for very heavy-duty applications and long-haul, high-capacity road freight,” it explains.

“From the late 2020s, hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles emerge as the preferred solution [for road freight].”

BP came to similar conclusions in its recent Energy Outlook report.

After explaining that the future of cars is battery electric, the Shell study explains: “Today, the debate is about whether batteries can power heavier transport such as buses, municipal vehicles, vans and long-haul freight.

“Long-haul freight has long been considered a step too far for batteries: their size and weight reduce load capacity, while the recharging time for a 1MWh (or more) battery brings logistical challenges.

“Overall, the case for batteries in long-haul trucks has not been convincing... Yet the hydrogen fuel cell is already fading as an option in other areas.

“Tests of hydrogen bus fleets through the 2010s have come and gone, with most cities now adopting battery-electric buses. Some Chinese cities are already well on their way to fully switching their bus fleets to batteries. A similar story is unfolding for municipal trucks, with the City of London Corporation becoming the first UK authority to run a full fleet of electric refuse collection vehicles in 2021. In late 2022, Tesla named PepsiCo as the first customer for its battery-powered semi long-haul truck.”

The report states that battery power will “win overall” in road freight — ie, including vans and medium-haul trucks — with only 25% of the sector moving to hydrogen by 2070.

It adds: “Of course, scenarios can be wrong, so is it just a question of time before all forms of road transport use battery-electric power?”

Aviation and shipping

Hydrogen will also play a role in aviation and shipping, in the Sky 2050 scenario.

“Jet turbine planes, burning hydrogen as a fuel, start to appear on medium-haul routes in the 2040s.

“In time, the cost of capturing CO2 from the air using direct air capture falls, and this allows for the cost-effective production of synthetic hydrocarbon fuels [made with clean hydrogen].”

The report explains that the shipping industry is set to experiment with biofuels, hydrogen and ammonia in the 2020s and early 2030s.

“In the mid-2030s, however, the industry settles firmly on the hydrogen-based solution, working in close co-operation with shipbuilders, fuel suppliers and key bunkering ports.

“Almost all ships constructed after this time have fuel systems that use either hydrogen or ammonia.”

Methanol, which is being pursued as a fuel by shipping giant Maersk and others, does not play a role in the Sky 2050 scenario.