ANALYSIS | Why the risks and potential rewards are both high for green hydrogen producers at the upcoming EU subsidy auction
While rules on development timelines and firm contracts have been watered down, bidders may have to price in extra risk — or find they are no longer competitive
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The terms and conditions of the competitive auction offer up to €4.50 ($4.82) per kg for ten years from when the project starts production — potentially a higher subsidy per project than the $3/kg clean hydrogen production tax credit offered in the US.
But this is not indexed to inflation.
As such, over the five-year time limit that developers have to build their projects, the cost of equipment, logistics and labour could all ratchet up beyond what was estimated when they bid into the auction, without the subsidy rising to compensate for the increased expenses.
“The lack of indexation in the offshore wind sector means companies have not been able to mitigate rising material and construction costs, leading to companies cancelling multi-billion-euro projects,” said Jorgo Chatzimarkakis, CEO of industry association Hydrogen Europe.
“This same issue could be a dealbreaker for hydrogen and the whole European Green Deal. To fix this issue in the pilot auction would be an important signal for all clean technologies.”
However, the lack of inflation indexation could also mean that developers will simply have to calculate how much they are willing to gamble on future inflation and longer lead times for cheaper electrolysers, according to Adithya Bhashyam, associate at research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).
The recent increase in bid ceiling to €4.50/kg from €4/kg could be a subtle way for the European Commission to pass on risk management around inflation onto the developers.
“From a Commission point of view, if you index [inflation], you can’t give out as many subsidies, you can’t support as many projects — either way, the amount is larger but you’re just moving risk onto the developers,” Bhashyam said.
“The question is who will be willing to sign an offtake agreement like that?” Bhashyam mused.
“In the US, you know you’re going to get the tax credit, as long as you meet the lifecycle emissions criteria,” Bhashyam said, although this guidance has still not been finalised.
However, he is optimistic that the auctions will provide greater transparency on what green hydrogen costs are actually achievable — and whether current support is enough to stimulate the market.
Bhashyam estimates that between 239-717MW could receive subsidies from the pilot auction, assuming the average bid is between €1.5-4.5/kg and electrolysers are run at 45% utilisation.
BNEF figures currently anticipate that projects in Sweden and Spain will be able to enter the lowest bid prices for renewable hydrogen, based on their respective countries extremely low wind and solar costs.
‘Inflated profits’
Since only a five-year pre-contract agreement is needed to bid into the auction, “there is a high likelihood that after a certain period of time, the strike price with offtakers will evolve”, the non-profit wrote in an analysis published yesterday (Thursday).
It highlighted that the EU is already gearing up to introduce mandates for the use of green hydrogen and its derivatives in industry and transport via its updated Renewable Energy Directive, FuelEU and RefuelEU programmes, which will inevitably increase demand.
“However, despite the fact that the funding for the Hydrogen Bank comes from the Innovation Fund, which serves to finance the decarbonisation of the ETS [Emissions Trading System] sectors, under this auction no restriction on off-takers was included,” the non-profit added, noting that the necessity for the buyer to use hydrogen to reduce emissions has not been included in criteria to rank bids, nor even to break a tie.
Additionally, Bellona pointed out that while the initial draft terms and conditions required project developers to have at least a memorandum of understanding for a ten-year renewable power purchase agreement covering 100% of production, the final rules only need bidders to have pre-contracts for 60% of the project’s total electricity demand.