'Greatest opportunity' for hydrogen in long-haul trucking — but none at all in passenger cars: US government
New systems-level blueprint to decarbonise US transport sees battery-electric in all sectors, with hydrogen potentially dominating heavy trucking
Hydrogen has the potential to dominate the market for zero-emissions trucking in the US, but there is no chance of it making even minor gains into the passenger vehicles sector, the federal government has indicated.
Hydrogen: hype, hope and the hard truths around its role in the energy transition
The blueprint, which will be used to inform transportation policymaking and long-term planning, champions a systems approach to decarbonisation, in which the entire transport supply chain is considered at once, from power grids, urban planning and refuelling to vehicle manufacture and fleet management.
It outlines three strategies: convenience, which is essentially smarter urban planning that minimises the need for transport use; efficiency, to minimise emissions and encourage use of public transport; and the transition to clean options such as zero-emissions vehicles.
But transitioning to zero emissions vehicles will yield by far the most emissions reductions, it said, with the first two strategies serving to “ease the challenges” of the third.
And hydrogen also has potential in the rail and maritime sector, when the use of hydrogen to make ammonia and methanol for shipping are factored in.
But the cornerstone of US government’s transport decarbonisation strategy hinges on the uptake of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), which Washington expects to dominate the market for zero-emission light-duty (passenger) vehicles — which currently accounts for 49% of all US transport sectors emissions — by 2050, and much of the medium-duty market as well.
This is fuelled by BEVs’ advanced penetration into the market, the ready availability of vehicles and refuelling infrastructure, as well as an astounding 90% reduction in battery costs over the decade to 2020.
By comparison, the use of hydrogen in passenger vehicles will be negligible, the matrix suggests.
Even medium-haul road freight is likely to see a high penetration of BEVs, the government added.
“Widespread transition away from fossil fuels for transportation will have far-reaching consequences for energy and electricity systems, including new opportunities for significant electricity load growth, while also requiring greater co-ordination for planning and operation between the transportation and electricity sectors,” it added.
Both battery-electric and e-fuels could have a role to play in aviation alongside hydrogen, it added, but the use of sustainable aviation fuels (some of which are made from hydrogen) will yield the most emissions reductions until mid-century.
“The Department of Energy is prepared to implement this blueprint alongside our partners within the Biden-Harris Administration to ensure all Americans feel the benefits of the clean transportation transition: good-paying manufacturing jobs, better air quality, and lower transportation costs,” said Jennifer Granholm, US secretary of state for energy.
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