'More important problems to solve' | IEA head criticises German focus on green hydrogen
Fatih Birol warns that renewable H2 will remain expensive, with only 7% of projects set to be built by 2030
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“I always ask how many of these green hydrogen projects will actually be completed by 2030,” he said.
“One thing is certain: only 7% of global hydrogen projects will be completed by 2030,” Birol added.
This reflects the IEA’s most recent renewables forecast, which estimated that while 360GW of electrolyser projects were in the pipeline for development by 2030, only 12GW had started construction or reached a final investment decision (FID).
“The costs will be very high. And it is still completely unclear who will demand the hydrogen,” Birol continued.
“Hydrogen will definitely become more important, but we first have to create demand for it in order to reduce costs. The current excessive expectations could distract from the fact that there are more important problems to solve.”
Meanwhile, it is difficult to predict short-term uptake for new uses, such as direct iron reduction for steelmaking, fuels for heavy-duty trucking, shipping and aviation, or co-firing in gas-fired power plants.
The German government plans to hold a series of tenders for up to 23.8GW of hydrogen-fired power, of which 15GW would be for “hydrogen-ready” gas-fired power plants.
Birol also strongly criticised Germany’s decision to shut down all its nuclear plants, the last of which were closed in 2023, describing it as a “historic mistake”.
“If I had to choose between building new gas power plants and keeping existing nuclear power plants online, I would choose nuclear power plants,” he added.
Birol also cautioned against attempts to revive the moribund German solar manufacturing industry, warning that “governments should look at which areas they can be competitive in”, particularly given manufacturers in China are not even producing at full capacity.
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