Blue hydrogen cheaper than green H2 in all markets except China amid falling gas prices: BNEF
Green is not due to undercut blue in all markets until 2033 if using Western-made electrolysers — but could compete on cost years earlier if using Chinese tech
Stay ahead on hydrogen with our free newsletter
BNEF’s previous update in the second half of 2022 suggested that due to high fossil gas prices, green hydrogen financed that year was “temporarily competitive” with gas in Europe.
But “this is no longer the case in 2023”, the research firm says, as the price of fossil gas is expected to drop to around $10 per MMBTU (million British thermal units) across all countries this year — 64% lower than the research firm’s estimate last year.
And this is projected to follow through over the coming years. BNEF’s forecast for gas prices up to 2030 is 23% lower than in its update in the second half of last year.
The levelised cost of green hydrogen ranges from $2.38-5.89/kg if using cheap Chinese alkaline electrolysers, $4.18-11.07/kg from Western-made alkaline equipment, and $4.57-12/kg with proton exchange membrane (PEM) technology.
China also benefits from a projected fall in the country’s wind turbine prices, which are expected to help bring average cost of wind energy down 8% over 2024-50.
The new update also aligns the operation years of the hydrogen project and upstream renewable assets, to account for longer construction time for onshore and offshore wind compared to solar, which increases the modelled cost of electricity from the previous update.
However, the research firm notes that a switch to Chinese electrolysers might not necessarily drive down costs earlier, since the markets currently using Western technologies are still likely to be subject to higher installation costs and a lack of access to Chinese equipment in the short term.
BNEF has also differentiated assumptions of financing costs between markets, which bumped up the average levelised cost of green hydrogen by 14.5% compared to a uniform cost of capital.
When different financing costs are factored in, even without accounting for longer construction timelines, some markets such as Japan have a cheaper levelised cost of hydrogen (LCOH) than previously estimated, falling from around $4.72-9.80/kg to $4.36-8.90/kg.
Other markets are now expected to have higher LCOHs. The cost of green hydrogen production in Turkey originally ranged from around $2.36-4.36/kg but is now estimated to be $3.08-8.18/kg. Vietnam meanwhile is now expected to produce green hydrogen at $5.44-10.72/kg, where it had previously ranged from $4.18-7.80/kg.
And BNEF calculates India will have an LCOH of $3.08-6.72/kg when financing costs in that market are accounted for, compared to $2.54-4.54/kg in the previous model.
(Copyright)