Cost of green hydrogen unlikely to fall 'dramatically' in coming years, admit developers
Renewable H2 costs are actually increasing in the short term due to increased capex and shortages in electrolyser manufacturing capacity
The cost of green hydrogen has often been projected to fall dramatically over the coming years as electrolyser manufacturing scales and renewable electricity costs drop — a similar trajectory to solar over the past decade, which saw the cost of PV modules fall by more than 80% since 2010 mainly due to mass manufacturing in China.
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“Ultimately it will come down again,” he added.
But Benjamin Haycraft, executive vice president for EMEA at green hydrogen technology firm Plug Power, on a separate panel argued that there will continue to be a green premium on electrolytic hydrogen.
“If you have electricity at €50/MWh, you’re probably going to get a variable cost of €2/kg, and then you need to amortise the asset,” Haycraft added.
“And so, how does that meet the end-consumers, which would then need to absorb a significant green premium? And I think that’s a fundamental issue — today we’re trying to hide this natural green inflation with subsidies, but the reality is, this green premium in my opinion is not going to go away.”
The biggest factor behind the rise in cost is simply that the upstream renewables for hydrogen production are highly exposed to increases in the cost of capital.
“We are seeing… kind of a challenge because renewables cost, capex is increasing,” said Sopna Sury, chief operating officer for hydrogen at German utility RWE, although she notes that once the renewables plants are actually up and running, there is a “marginal cost of zero”.
“We also see in our projects some increasing capex numbers unfortunately,” German energy firm Uniper’s CEO for hydrogen Axel Wietfeld admitted in a separate presentation at the conference.
He did not disclose the exact impact of rising capex on the levelised cost of renewable H2 production, but he noted that “grey and blue are a bit lower in terms of cost” while citing forecasts that green hydrogen costs are only likely to fall below blue by 2035.
Electrolyser prices
“It is still going to be quite difficult to bring down the cost,” said Ganapathy Swamy,Linde's vice president for large project development in Europe, Middle East and Africa.
“The production cost of these electrolysers will not follow the kind of curve one may expect in solar or others, where it’s different economics there,” he cautioned.
Swamy noted that not only are electrolyser manufacturers likely to be stretched between different regions — albeit with a focus on the US due to more green hydrogen projects expected to take off due to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) — but also may have to increase prices due to a short supply of raw metals such as titanium and iridium.
However, fellow panellist Didier Holleaux, executive vice president at French utility Engie, pushed back on Swamy’s concerns about shortages of raw materials, citing reductions in the use of critical metals in other renewable technologies in response to shortages. “I’m optimistic the same will happen with electrolysers.”
Instead, he raised that the biggest problem with electrolysers on the market is in fact their operating costs.
“Today, the reliability of electrolysers is not yet to the point where it needs to be if we want to develop the hydrogen economy,” Holleaux said. “We need to have electrolysers which are working reliably, with low maintenance cost and with very limited number of outages.”
Cost of regulation
A study published earlier this month estimated that the requirement for hydrogen to be produced in the same one-hour period as renewable electricity generation would increase costs by 27.5% compared to monthly matching, with little impact on emissions.
“If this is the rule of the game, I think regulation is just one part of it,” Sury added.
“We have to talk about funding support, because at the end of the day, from a consumer’s perspective, from an offtaker’s perspective, they need to understand what are they going to pay? So if we are making rules more complicated, it needs to have another mechanism to fill the gap.”
Less risk of losing out?
This expectation that prices will not fall dramatically over the next decade could be a blessing in disguise for developers when it comes to actually getting customers to commit to long-term offtake agreements — generally considered a must-have by banks to prove revenue certainty over the debt payback period.
But this still depends on customers agreeing to pay the green premium, which Sury noted would require a greater push from government to drive in the short term.
“If you have the demand side lock themselves in now into longer-term contracts, which might be a bit too costly… that’s why regulation and funding support needs to start helping de-risking,” she said.
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