Germany is set to miss its target for 10GW of electrolysers installed by 2030, according to data from the government-funded Hydrogen Compass study shown to news channel MDR Aktuell.
Hydrogen Compass, run by German research institutes Acatech and DECHEMA, tracked announced green hydrogen projects and found that only 8.8GW of capacity would be installed by the start of next decade.
While still a missed target, this figure is a more optimistic assessment than that released by German utility E.ON last year, which suggested only 5.6GW would be built by 2030.
Hydrogen Compass also tracked that by 2035, Germany could have 23.4GW of electrolyser capacity.
But Hydrogen Compass’ researchers warn that the country will still have to import vast volumes of H2 to meet its expected demand of 95-130TWh (2.88 to 3.93 million tonnes) by 2030 even if it meets its domestic capacity target.
“We expect that at least half to two thirds of the hydrogen will have to be imported, even in the long term,” the tracker’s project manager Andrea Lübcke told MDR.
This is because 10GW may only produce enough hydrogen to meet 28TWh (850,000 tonnes) of demand, according to Hydrogen Compass’ calculations.
The tracker also found that Germany is leading in electrolyser installations in Europe to date, with 79.8MW — nearly twice as much capacity as Spain, which is second in the ranking with 40.1MW.
Much of this is installed in the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia (14.7MW), followed by the northern regions of Schleswig-Holstein (11.9MW) and Hamburg (10.7MW).
However, central Germany, which includes major chemical and oil refining complexes such as the Leuna works, has so far lagged behind on electrolyser installation, with only 1MW in Saxony-Anhalt and 0.69MW in Thuringia.