Global green hydrogen production set to require 50GW of renewable energy by 2027: IEA
This 100-fold increase could be 80% higher if supportive government policies are put in place, says new report by the International Energy Agency
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In this “accelerated case”, almost 4% of the total global growth in renewables capacity between 2022 and 2027 would be required for green hydrogen production, compared to just over 2% in the main case scenario.
But in the hydrogen-exporting nations of Chile and Australia, and the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa), that figure would hit 19%, 17.5% and 13%, respectively (in the main case scenario).
The IEA report explains that global renewables capacity is expected to experience rapid growth of 2.4 terawatts during the five-year period — more than double the existing global capacity.
China will lead the world in terms of green hydrogen additions between today and 2027, adding more than 18GW of projects, driven mainly by provincial and local government policies, such as Inner Mongolia’s target to produce 500,000 tonnes per year, as well as the central government’s plans to decarbonise industry and transport and boost electrolyser manufacturing.
Europe is expected to deploy 7GW of dedicated renewable energy for green hydrogen production on the back of EU decarbonisation goals, financial incentives and energy security measures to displace Russian gas.
In Asia Pacific, Latin America and the MENA region, demand for renewable energy for green hydrogen will be 19GW by 2027, driven by ammonia produced for export. Australia, Chile, Oman and Saudi Arabia will take the lead, but European regulatory uncertainty is affecting the forecasts, the IEA admits.
“Securing off-takers to bring projects to financial close and obtaining regulatory clarity over definitions of low-emissions hydrogen could be the most important factors to unlock development of the project pipeline,” the report explains.
“For example, policy actions to support demand creation for low-emission hydrogen, particularly in the industry and transport sectors (eg, through mandates, public procurement and auctions) could increase the number of willing buyers; and financial incentives to help reduce production costs could improve the competitiveness of renewable hydrogen with other fuels and raise the likelihood of securing off-takers.
“Investors would be able to move forward with planned projects once they have regulatory clarity over what qualifies as renewable hydrogen and how electricity is accounted for.”
Replacing this all with green hydrogen would require an estimated 2.7 terawatts of renewable energy — more than today’s global installed capacity.
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