Global hydrogen demand to more than triple by 2050, driven by power generation, aviation and industry: analyst
Two thirds of the H2 available by mid-century will be green and 16% blue, says report by S&P Global Commodity Insights
The global demand for hydrogen will increase by a factor of 3.3 by 2050, with growth coming from a wide range of sectors, led by power generation, aviation and heavy industry, according to a new report from S&P Global Commodities Insights.
Hydrogen: hype, hope and the hard truths around its role in the energy transition
Most of the demand growth will come from “new” energy sectors — led by aviation, power generation/energy storage and heavy industry (around 45-50MT each), but also including shipping, road transport and residential/commercial heat.
However, demand will also grow by 18% in the incumbent industries of chemicals (including fertiliser) and oil refining.
“Nearly all demand in ‘new’ energy sectors will be met by clean hydrogen to advance decarbonisation goals, and unabated production feeding incumbent sectors will continue to be phased out through the 2050s,” says S&P.
It adds that 17% of the hydrogen (42.7 MT) would be traded across borders, mainly from areas with abundant wind and solar power, such as Australia, Chile, North Africa and the Middle East, to “carbon-conscious energy importers in the EU and East Asia”.
S&P admits that its forecast is far more conservative than those published by other organisations, and that it is also pessimistic about the race to net-zero emissions.
“Our view has only a small role for hydrogen in other energy sectors, including light-duty vehicles and low- and medium-temperature heat for buildings and industry. This outlook is therefore a conservative view compared to the sum of country and energy agency targets, says S&P.
“In addition to [high] production costs, hydrogen deployment will be constrained by the pace and scale of required investment and construction and, perhaps most importantly, competition with other low-carbon solutions like direct electrification through batteries or heat pumps.”
But it adds: “If the global energy system shifts more toward 2050 net-zero targets, hydrogen will have a larger role to play.”
In its forecast, S&P expects 32.5 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions being released into the atmosphere in 2050 — only a 9% reduction from peak emissions in 2028.
(Copyright)