Global pipeline of hydrogen electrolysis projects grew by 55GW in past six months: analyst
Total capacity of announced projects now stands at about 1,200GW, says Aurora Energy Research
The global pipeline for hydrogen electrolysis projects has grown by 55.2GW in the past six months, raising the total to approximately 1,200GW, according to UK-headquartered analyst Aurora Energy Research.
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There are currently 1.92GW of operational electrolysis projects around the world today, the analyst states, with about 15GW at an “advanced development stage”, which Aurora expects will be on line “in the coming years”.
However, 90% of announced projects — more than 1,000GW — are still in the early stage of development, which Caglayan describes as those “with a lot of ambiguity like no location, capacity, timeline specification or similar aspects”.
Aurora says it expects 50% of the total hydrogen production capacity in Europe to be made using electrolysers by 2030, growing to 80% by 2040.
But it points out that the EU is only set to install 35GW of electrolyser capacity by 2030 — and that the bloc’s target to produce ten million tonnes of green hydrogen within the bloc by 2030 would require about 150GW of electrolysers. So the EU is expected to miss its target by about 76%, Aurora says.
“This shortfall is attributed to high electrolyser capex, rising cost of capital, and uncertainty in offtake agreements, delaying project investment decisions,” the analyst explains.
Nevertheless, Europe is the global leader for announced projects, with 32% of the total capacity, followed by Oceania (mainly Australia) in second place with 21%.
Germany leads electrolyser project development in Europe, with about 9GW “in advanced stages”, followed by the Netherlands and the UK.
“The positive impact of clearer policy frameworks and support schemes is evident in electrolyser projects globally, with new projects as well as some of the existing ones reaching a final investment decision,” said Caglayan. “However, further cooperation still remains a prerequisite for the realisation of national targets and the successful roll-out of a future hydrogen market.”