A staggering 957GW of hydrogen electrolyser projects have been announced globally — despite only 270MW being currently in operation — according to a new report from UK-based analyst Aurora Energy Research.

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Only 11% of the announced capacity, totalling 108GW, has advanced beyond the early planning stage, and 500GW is attributed to a single project — the Spirit of Scotia, in Canada, which was unveiled by developer Green Hydrogen International in August with no details and no targeted commissioning date.

A further 92GW of projects have been announced globally since April, says Aurora Energy Research.

“Hydrogen project announcements have not slowed despite today’s energy crisis,” explains head of hydrogen research Anise Ganbold. “Instead, 115 electrolyser projects have been announced in the past six months. After excluding the 500GW Spirit of Scotia mega project in Canada from the count, planned capacity globally is up by one quarter since April.”

But while developers say they are planning to bring 202GW of electrolysers online by 2030, 62% of these have not advanced beyond the early planning stage, according to Aurora’s latest global electrolyser database.

“Most projects in development lack solid foundations... lacking key details such as specific locations, technology providers, or target milestone timelines,” says Aurora.

Only 76GW of projects are “in more advanced planning stages”, it adds.

The analyst adds that it expects global electrolyser manufacturing capacity to rise to more than 30GW per year by 2025, up from 8GW today, and “if all manufacturers were to operate at their maximum capacity, 231GW of electrolysers could be manufactured between today and 2030.”

Earlier this week, Rystad Energy analyst Lein Mann Bergsmark warned electrolyser manufacturers that manufacturing capacity was scheduled to be as much as 60% higher than demand for the machines, which use electricity to split water molecules into hydrogen and oxygen.

“Up to 2025, I expect that manufacturing capacity will increase more than announced projects due to the long-lead-time nature of projects, but longer-term demand really needs to grow faster than manufacturing capacity to bring us to a more sustainable path”, she said in an interview with Hydrogen Insight.