High carbon price makes blue hydrogen cost competitive with grey in UK and Netherlands: ICIS
More efficient technology associated with low-carbon H2 production also a factor in driving costs down
Stay ahead on hydrogen with our free newsletter
“While production costs for low-carbon hydrogen have been competitive on a variable basis, ie, absent of capital cost recovery, since 2022, the alignment on a project breakeven level means that building and operating a new hydrogen plant would be cheaper with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology than without,” the market intelligence company explains.
The main driver for this cost competitiveness is a relatively high carbon price in both the EU and the UK over the past six months.
So why did blue hydrogen prices compete with grey in the UK in Q2, with the two prices reaching parity on some days, but not Q1 if the carbon price has gone down?
ICIS notes in the report that another key driver of cost reduction for blue hydrogen projects is the rising popularity of autothermal reforming (ATR) — which processes methane into hydrogen more efficiently than SMR, while also emitting CO2 in a more easily captured high-pressure stream.
He adds that forward gas prices were also relatively high as the market is continuing to price in risk around the upcoming winter without Russian pipeline gas.
“This means the gas component of the hydrogen cost for unabated SMR remained relatively high, while the power price component dropped for the low-carbon ATR. At the time of the parity there was also a minor uptick in carbon prices,” he says.
Since power prices are linked to gas, since gas-fired power plants generally set the price of power based on merit order, “thereafter the power market lifted again, pushing the low-carbon ATR back to a slight premium”, Stones adds.
On average, the cost of hydrogen produced via ATR with CCS was only €0.02/kg more expensive than unabated SMR in the Netherlands over the second quarter, and €0.10/kg more expensive in the UK, according to ICIS calculations.
This represents a continued decline from the €0.04/kg and €0.16/kg premiums identified in the Netherlands and UK respectively in the first quarter.
In general, the cost of producing hydrogen from methane bought on front-month contracts fell over the second quarter, since the price of gas bought on these near-term agreements was low due to continued high storage in Europe (meaning less gas supply is needed to replenish stocks).
However, as mentioned, gas prices in 2025 are projected to be much higher than in the front-month, due to greater uncertainty around how the next two winters will play out as well as proposed cuts to OPEC+ oil output.
“Consequently, production costs from natural gas based on Year+2 values ended the quarter around €3.50-4.00/kg, remaining above 2022 lows of around €2.00-3.00/kg,” the report notes, although this is still much lower than costs associated with electrolysis.
Green premium
Electrolytic hydrogen breakeven costs based on front-month wholesale power prices have also decreased between Q1 and Q2 amid milder temperatures and less gas used for heating, falling below €5/kg in France and the Netherlands for the first time since 2021.
However, ICIS notes that the cost of production stayed below €10/kg, with French, German and Dutch electrolytic production costs nearing the €6.00/kg mark by the end of Q2.
Meanwhile, based on aforementioned gas price uncertainty driving up future power prices, year+2 breakeven costs of production for green hydrogen projects financed over the past quarter are expected to be higher than €7/kg.