Strong winds could make green hydrogen produced in Ireland the cheapest in Europe, says analyst
Irish green H2 potential has been overlooked so far, but Aurora Energy Research modelling finds it could outstrip Spain or Germany on cost
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In new analysis, the firm found that under “optimal conditions” Ireland could be producing green hydrogen at a levelised cost of €3.50/kg ($3.70/kg), 8% lower than Spain is expected to manage and 35% lower than Germany.
Ireland's potential is mostly due to high wind speeds in the west of the country as well as growing congestion on its electricity grid, which could push offshore wind operators to consider connecting their assets to electrolysers to make green hydrogen.
Ireland has average wind speeds of over 10 metres per second, according to Global Wind Atlas, and no shortage of wind generators.
Those who have been curtailing their wind power because power supply exceeds demand —pushing prices to zero — may be tempted by green hydrogen production during times of high wind speeds and low electricity demand.
Only a relatively small amount of Ireland’s wind power, 1.2TWh per year or 4%, is curtailed at present, but Aurora expects this amount to more than double to 2.8TWh by 2030.
But Ireland’s nascent green hydrogen sector will still require significant subsidy in order to attract hydrogen developers to the country, Aurora warned.
“Despite favourable production economics, Ireland is not yet an attractive option for hydrogen developers,” said Nick Byrne, Aurora’s Ireland research product manager, noting that in Aurora’s latest Hydrogen Market Attractiveness Report, Ireland ranks 14th of the 15 EU countries considered, primarily because it lacks a national hydrogen strategy.
“This is due to change in the spring, potentially propelling Ireland to the other end of the rankings, but only if the strategy addresses all aspects of the market—policy support for supply, demand and infrastructure is crucial,” he added.
“A lack of action to reduce this premium could prevent a market from developing,” Aurora warned. “Introducing government-backed hydrogen purchase agreements that would pay for the cost premium could incentivise production, whilst capital expenditure relief on investments in electrolysers could further reduce the costs to be recovered per kilogram of hydrogen.”
The capex support subsidy could have the additional benefit of pushing down prices even further to €3.30/kg, Aurora said.
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