Tajikistan plans a million tonnes of hydropower-based green hydrogen by 2040 — but is that realistic?

Tajikistan will push to produce one million tonnes of green hydrogen by 2040, drawing on vast hydropower potential in a bid to reduce oil imports, the nation’s minister of energy and water resources Daler Juma told news agency Reuters this week.

“We are fully dependent on oil product imports... and are developing a road map for producing green hydrogen,” he said.

But these targets and export plans have been called into question by some analysts.

His report estimated that the maximum potential for Tajikistan’s renewable hydrogen production is actually five times lower, at 204,000 tonnes per year. And this is only if there is a 30% increase in hydropower and solar generation, along with major infrastructure upgrades at hydroelectric dams—particularly given these already struggle with seasonal electricity shortages.

“The scenario of 75% of hydrogen exports to neighboring countries also appears unrealistic because only Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan (unique among other Central Asian countries) are seriously considering the development of a hydrogen economy, and both countries plan for hydrogen exports rather than imports,” Melnikov added.

Tajikistan may have put its neighbours forward as a prospect for exports simply due to a lack of other clear import markets.

The country’s export prospects to Europe are limited by a lack of access to open sea and relatively large distances from EU member states, with a hypothetical overland pipeline between the capital of Dushanbe to the nearest EU capital Sofia in Bulgaria having to cross through Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Turkey. Some of its Central Asian neighbours—such as Azerbaijan—are closer and already have existing gas pipeline connections with the EU.

Tajikistan does share a land border with China, with only around 1,700km between Dushanbe to Urumqi (the largest industrial center in Xinjiang).

“An initial focus on hydrogen exports is a natural stage that policymakers worldwide typically go through. As the national strategy is further developed, priorities are likely to change significantly,” Melnikov said.

When it comes to reducing oil imports for transport fuel, Tajikistan has already waived taxes and import duties on imported electric cars, with the government putting the number of battery-electric cars on the road at 1,600 as of this year.

However, hydrogen has often been touted as a better way to power zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles, given fuel cells tend to be lighter than batteries and provide a longer range — although this also depends on there being sufficient, affordable supply and refuelling infrastructure.