Grey hydrogen can be used in heavy-duty vehicles in EU’s fossil fuel phase-out, despite being as polluting as diesel
EU is counting on carbon markets to reduce fuel emissions — but the targets do not align
Stay ahead on hydrogen with our free newsletter
To meet the targets, truck and bus manufacturers would need to be producing enough ZEVS to correspond to the emissions reductions, fitted with technology such as batteries, hydrogen fuel cells or hydrogen internal combustion engines.
The remaining 10% of emissions not covered by 2040 would be reserved for segments that are extremely hard to decarbonise, such as vehicles used in forestry or agriculture, so in practice, auto makers are likely to be producing close to 100% of trucks and buses with ZEV technology by 2040.
But as the rules do not hold manufacturers liable for the lifetime emissions of the fuel ultimately used in the vehicle — only the tailpipe emissions calculated via a range of criteria including driving patterns and component performance — this means that ZEVs can run on grey hydrogen made from fossil fuels and still count towards a fossil fuel phase-out.
This means that a vehicle running on grey hydrogen in the name of the EU’s fossil-fuel phase-out could be more polluting than diesel, depending on the upstream emissions intensity.
However it is not clear how this will be achieved, as in each case the targets do not align with those outlined in the heavy-duty vehicle targets — potentially allowing grey hydrogen use as a fuel.
The new “ETS 2”, which specifically covers emissions from buildings and road transport, caps emissions from fuel sold by suppliers at 42% by 2030 compared to 2005 emissions (unlike the heavy-duty vehicle standard for which 2019 is the base year). However, as yet, there is no target beyond 2030.
The hydrogen-specific mandate in RED III envisages just 1% of all fuel supplied to the transport sector, including maritime and aviation, to be Renewable Fuel of Non-Biological Origin (RFNBO) — the EU's term for green hydrogen and its derivatives, such as ammonia or methanol — by 2030.
Both of these targets seem insufficient to ensure that green hydrogen is used in heavy duty trucking rather than polluting grey, negating some of the benefits of a fossil-fuel phase-out in the sector.
Ultimately, however, it will depend on how vehicle manufacturers choose to meet the HDVS targets, which will be determined by the needs of their customers. If there is an influx of hydrogen-powered buses and trucks, then it will be harder to find enough low-carbon hydrogen to meet the targets expected — especially without firmer targets for fuel suppliers — resulting in more grey hydrogen use.
(Copyright)