Hydrogen trucks will be more expensive to own and operate than battery equivalents in Europe until at least 2040: report
But fuel-cell trucks will reach cost parity with diesel as soon as 2030, says International Council on Clean Transportation paper
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Proponents of hydrogen trucking often admit that battery-electric vehicles (BEV) would be the cheaper option, but say long BEV charging times make them an impractical option that does not appeal to freight companies.
“Batteries for long-haul trucks are sized assuming the possibility of opportunity charging during the driver’s mandatory 45-minute break,” the document explains. “We assume 350kW charging technology today and 1MW charging as of 2030, when we expect MW charging to be widely deployed.
“For long-haul trucks driving up to 1,000km, we assume there will be two 45-minute breaks during daily operation.”
| €/km | Light-duty urban truck | Medium-duty urban truck | Heavy-duty regional truck | Long-haul (500km, return to depot) | Long-haul (800km, return to depot) | Long-haul cross-border (1,000km) |
| BEV | 1.03 | 0.87 | 0.83 | 0.94 | 0.93 | 0.91 |
| H2-FCEV | 1.18 | 1.03 | 1.06 | 1.22 | 1.24 | 1.16 |
| H2-ICE | 1.42 | 1.36 | 1.15 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.28 |
| E-diesel | 1.34 | 1.25 | 1.12 | 1.36 | 1.34 | 1.27 |
| Diesel | 1.19 | 1.07 | 0.98 | 1.15 | 1.13 | 1.06 |
| €/km | Light-duty urban truck | Medium-duty urban truck | Heavy-duty regional truck | Long-haul (500km, return to depot) | Long-haul (800km, return to depot) | Long-haul cross-border (1,000km) |
| BEV | 1.01 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 0.93 | 0.91 | 0.89 |
| H2-FCEV | 1.09 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.08 | 1.06 | 1.00 |
| H2-ICE | 1.32 | 1.23 | 1.05 | 1.24 | 1.23 | 1.15 |
| E-diesel | 1.34 | 1.25 | 1.12 | 1.36 | 1.34 | 1.27 |
| Diesel | 1.19 | 1.07 | 0.98 | 1.15 | 1.13 | 1.06 |
The paper concludes: “Battery electric trucks are projected to be the least-cost decarbonisation pathway for most truck classes before 2030.
“Medium- and light-duty urban battery electric trucks are already at TCO [total cost of ownership] parity with their diesel counterparts. This is due to their lower operational expenses relative to diesel, which counterweighs their higher upfront cost.
“For heavy-duty long-haul trucks, TCO parity with diesel is expected to be achieved between 2025 and 2026 due to the more expensive upfront costs driven by the large batteries needed to meet high daily driving ranges.”
The good news for hydrogen trucks is that they will not be too far behind batteries.
“Fuel-cell trucks powered by green hydrogen are expected to become cost-competitive with diesel trucks by 2035,” the report explains.
“Given the expected reduction in the price of green hydrogen fuel in the 2030-40 timeframe, fuel-cell trucks will reach TCO parity with diesel trucks by 2030 for medium- and light-duty urban trucks and by 2035 for trucks operating in the long haul.”
But the document does add: “In the long term, fuel-cell trucks will record a 10% to 20% higher TCO than battery electric trucks.”
All other options, including vehicles powered by hydrogen internal combustion engines, will still be more expensive than diesel in 2040 and may never be able to achieve cost parity.
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